First Things First: The Senate in 2018

So, about that Senate…

Is it too soon to start obsessing over these races? As long as the fire keeps burning within us, not at all. We need to be thinking of these races early and often; the Republicans have a chance to get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate (60 seats). That is bad fucking news. Along with a majority in the House and President Kumquat in the driver’s seat, that gives the Republicans carte blanche to control the direction of the entire country, including stacking the Supreme Court.

Not interested.

A quick overview and this handy chart via Cook Political Report tells us the following about Election 2018:

Screenshot of information at
Screenshot of information at
  • Democrats will be defending 25 Senate seats.
    • 5 are expected to be competitive. These are FL, OH, ME, MO, and IN. Except for Maine (which split its electoral votes), these all went red this election.
    • An additional 7 are not necessarily safe.
    • All others are considered safe.
  • Republicans will be defending 8 Senate seats.
    • 2 are expected to be competitive. One is in a state that went red this year (AZ); the other is in a state that went blue (NV)
    • All others are considered safe.

So odds are, the best we are going to be able to do is pick up 2 seats. It’s imperative we defend the existing ones. While the numbers are not on our side, the bright side is that the incumbent party tends to lose seats in the first midterm after a Presidential campaign. It’s also important to remember that when you look at popular vote numbers from the Presidential election (even in many red states), they are closer than you probably realized. The electorate has changed in a way that is not staying in line with tradition; I think it’s important to remember all that math above assumes traditional patterns will hold. I think we could break it.

In 2017, the Senate will be comprised of 51 or 52 Republicans, and 46 or 47 Democrats (depending on how the Louisiana Senate runoff goes on December 10th).

As candidates emerge, I will profile them, and post ways to get involved from afar. While we will not all have an election in our state, it’s important to remember that these are indeed national elections.


Author: Melissa

Melissa is an artist and half-architect living in New Orleans, Louisiana.

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